The Impact of Asia’s Giants

On a per capita basis, China and India emit far less greenhouse gas than energy efficient Japan or environmentally scrupulous Sweden. However, 2.4 billion people live in China and India, a great many of whom aspire to Western energy intensive lifestyles. And thanks to the breakneck consumptive growth of the two countries’ economies, they just might get there – with potentially disastrous results for the world’s climate.

Rapidly developing countries with ample coal resources are building new power plants all the time. China has planned to build 168 traditional coal plants between 2006 and 2008, each with economic life spans of 50 years or more (Harvard Magazine, 2006). Some experts report that China is building the equivalent of two 500 megawatt coal fired power plants per week and a capacity comparable to the entire United Kingdom power grid each year. Each plant produces 3 million tons of CO2 per year. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007)

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The International Energy Agency believes the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China will nearly equal the increase from the entire industrialized world. Some recent estimates now put China’s current emissions beyond those of the USA for the first time (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2007). India, though behind its Asian neighbor, could see greenhouse gas emissions rise 70% by 2025, according to the World Resources Institute.

But the nearly double-digit growth rates that are responsible for those nightmare projections also present an environmental opportunity. Long-term, this means building coal plants using zero emission advanced technologies, and short-term, not building more dirty coal plants. “Anything you want to do about clean energy is easier to do from the outset,” says David Moskowitz, an energy consultant who has advised Chinese officials. “Every time they add a power plant or factory, they can add one cleaner and better than before.” If China and India can muster the will and resources to leapfrog the West’s energy-heavy development path, dangerous greenhouse gas emissions and the effect on climate change can be minimized. “China and India have to demonstrate to other countries that it is possible to develop in a sustainable way,” says Yang Fuqiang, vice president of the Energy Foundation in Beijing. “We can’t fail.” Acting soon to ensure that the right kind of coal plants are built now is critical.

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The Kyoto accord on climate change has done nothing to slow emissions growth in China and India. As developing countries, they are not required to make cuts in carbon emissions – and that is not likely to change after the agreement expires in 2012. Both countries are desperate for energy to fuel the economic expansion that is saving people from poverty. Despite bold investments in renewables, much of that energy will have to come from coal – the only traditional energy source they have in abundance. Barbara Finamore, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s China Clean Energy Program, estimates that China’s total electricity demand will increase 2,600 gigawatts by 2050, which is the equivalent of adding four 300-megawatt power plants every week for the next 45 years. India’s energy consumption rose 208% from 1980 to 2001, even faster than China’s.

Changing World Attitudes
International diplomacy on climate change has a heightened sense of urgency and activity. The Kyoto Protocol was signed by 163 countries in 2005. The subsequent meeting in Montreal, Canada launched fresh global action on a number of different levels, including the adoption of the rulebook setting the framework for trading and potential future action by developing countries. To date the Protocol has created US$2.7 billion of greenhouse friendly investment in the developing world, especially China, Brazil and Mexico. Over 750 projects are underway, and the forecast investment by 2012 in developing countries is US$100 billion.

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